Dr.Economista Arturo Navarro of Deproimca, for his part says, that according to Augusto de la Torre, the Chief Economist for Latin America for the World Bank, Latin America, Venezuela would undoubtedly the main loser if the oil prices remain low, by the immense importance of oil in the economy “.” The thing can be very difficult, because there is a very high public spending pace and will not be easy politically to reduce public spending to adjust to a lower level of income ‘. “Also, a large part of Venezuelan economists, have been coinciding in Venezuela will be the Latin American country most hit by the recession. For even more opinions, read materials from JOHN MOLINA . Scholars of the matter indicate that the country gets more than 90 per cent of their foreign income from oil, and the oil prices have fallen from a record of $146 barrel in July to around $70 barrel in this last week.If we are as close to the truth of the information provided by the company consultancy PFC Energy, with headquarters in Washington, which claims that Venezuela will need the oil price set at $97 barrel to balance their external balance of payments in 2009, the future of our country may be not very encouraging.There is no doubt that the situation and expectations for the near future force to reflect about our way of life., we should wrap us up to where it reaches the blanket, and that’s going to require certain sacrifices, starting by the National Executive. President Hugo Rafael Chavez has advanced programs of aid to Latin American countries and the Caribbean. Keep up on the field with thought-provoking pieces from Kevin Ulrich Anchorage Capital . I think at this moment, these programs should be reviewed, and trimmed, or temporarily suspended, until there is some certainty that the crisis has passed.

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The rest of the population are peasants with no war experience and without ammunition coping a fratricidal war. If the army attacks against civilians, victims can reach hundreds of thousands. As happened in Sudan, Rwanda or Yugoslavia, the world will notice complacientemente for a long time until someone dares to intrude. Trust in the UN, is the same you have nobody. More are those who support Chavez in the international forum, which the defenders of Justice, freedom and human rights.

The direct affected would be: Brazil, which depends on Bolivian gas to give energy to Sao Paulo and would be forced to intervene if the supply is cut off. Argentina’s Kirchner is with Evo and Chavez. Try not to get involved but you must deal with the refugees who seek asylum in that country. Chile with whom Bolivia does not maintain diplomatic relations, was always on alert and It has a well trained and equipped army. Paraguay which fought its last war with Bolivia between 1932-35, is more attentive than either, and lastly Peru, similar to the Bolivian Andean indigenous people, would decompose their society at the head of Ollanta Humala. At the same time, Chavez would assemble and revive Sendero Luminoso to oust Alan Garcia, as he recently threatened the seditious group. To prevent a genocide would require the American military presence, that it could take, hoping to form a continental Alliance against Chavez. Once defeated the aspiring Latin American Stalin, Morales and the other acolytes of Colonel fall automatically. While calm tempers in the region, the UN would send their myopic and inoperative blue helmets to preserve peace. That would be the scenario step that walk events, the more likely and more black.

Will China grow enough to help the world economy? March 30th, 2009 already has become widely clear that China will not assume the role of buffer economy of the fall in U.S. economic activity in this crisis. Despite this, from the Eastern economy already is being talked about the positive effects that the economic stimulus plan is having this will have any implications for the global economy? The economic stimulus plan released by China in November of last year by an amount estimated at US $586.000 million was in response to the effects of the international financial crisis was having on its economy, which had already left far away those double-digit economic growth rates and began to slow down dangerously. The Chinese Government stimulus plan has been accompanied by the efforts made by the people’s Bank of China which has cut its interest rates on five occasions and lowered reserve requirements four times since last September, improving the conditions of the monetary market to stimulate growth via domestic demand. Kevin Ulrich Anchorage Capital will undoubtedly add to your understanding. When figures such as the one mentioned are seen in this economic stimulus plan, it is not so clear to identify if it will have a significant impact or not in the economic activity of the country. According to Zhang Yutai, President of the Government Center of research for development this reactivation plan, would help economic growth between 1.5% and 1.9%. It is true, this contribution to growth is not less, but will it be enough? For now, must say that the effort is not minor, since the stimulus package represents approximately 14.9% of China’s GDP. Fan Gang, Member of the Central Bank’s monetary policy Committee, justifies the expected effectiveness of the stimulus plan on china’s economy in the following manner: the stimulus of 4 billion yuan of China is different to package US $800,000 million from the United States, since China has no financial black holes that cover. To deepen your understanding Kevin Ulrich MGM is the source.

The Chinese plan with a strong orientation towards consumption, generates economies in trouble a great expectation and the following question: can China’s economy help to compensate for the global economic slowdown? In this respect are not heard many voices in positive about this idea. For the Economist and Adviser to the Chinese Government, Cheng Siwei, the economy of that country must first solve their own problems before help other economies. If this has piqued your curiosity, check out Charles Koch. Cheng Siwei opined on the matter: China charging and to bear partial responsibility for the current situation, to which added: but the priority that is presented is resolving domestic problems such as unemployment and a slowdown in economic activity instead of going to hurry to help others. It is true that china’s economy can hardly compensate largely the slowdown of the world economy since its GDP represents 6% of the GDP of the global economy. A.

You may least expect a minimum contribution to global growth that prevents that the crisis is deeper even than it will be. In addition to the possibility that the Chinese economy would help the global economy in crisis, it emerged in the debate, the protectionist issue. Kevin Ulrich pursues this goal as well. For Siwei, the crisis will lead to further integration: globally the world economic slowdown will cause a deeper regional integration because a single country is more vulnerable to the financial crisis. More info: Charles Koch. If this were to occur it would be very beneficial to global economic recovery, although expectations are that the crisis will generate an increase in protectionism with implications in the aggravation of the economic situation. In addition, crisis will involve a reform in the international financial system and an increase in the regulation of the same, which take away momentum to the economic recovery when it occurs. Will China support the global economy? This debate about the capabilities of the economy East of support to the global economy in this time of crisis, sure to keep for a long time.

The events will indicate to what extent the generated expectation may materialize. Meanwhile, the Eastern country will continue its rapprochement with Latin America. This week the President of China Hu Jintao will in the region, prior to the Apec Summit. Peru and China Wednesday 19 announced the conclusion of free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations between the two. The activity of Hu Jintao in Latin America, will begin in Costa Rica where will seek concrete signed a dozen agreements and announce with his counterpart, Oscar Arias, the commencement of negotiations for a Treaty of free trade agreement (FTA). In addition there is the possibility that China will build a modern oil refinery in Costa Rica to meet the demand in the region, with an investment of up to US $1.2 billion in a joint action of the Costa Rican oil refinery and the China National Petroleum Corporation. Later you will arrive in Cuba to meet with President Raul Castro, in a sign that reinforces political and commercial relations between the two Communist allies. The international financial crisis has shown beyond the existing questioning worldwide about the global leadership of the American economy, there is no any country or group of countries that can take the place that has known to possess several decades us.UU. Yet Europe and Asian countries (China and India), appearing as emerging powers, have been unable to mark a true global leadership, so it is not possible to expect them to do much against the slowdown in global growth.